By Hanif Gull: The narrative and perception about Pakistan are changing. The world has started viewing Pakistan from a different perspective. Pakistan has proven itself as a credible player in this region. The victory was not just confined to dogfighting. The entire narrative about Pakistan as a failed and falling state built by Indian lobby over the years has gone down the drain. The strategic significance of Pakistan has been acknowledged by China and Russia- two great powers of contemporary times. The third great power USA has changed her tone and tenor towards Pakistan too, much to the frustration and disappointment of the Indian lobby.
There is a huge opportunity to build on this to make a new vision for Pakistan and follow it through for next 25 years irrespective of the change of governments. The huge investments that Pakistan has been making in her defense capabilities have paid off. There is a dire need that we develop a similar framework to improve our logistics especially the rail sector which is dilapidated if not completely collapsed.
While Pakistan has made notable progress in ports, roadways and aviation to some extent since independence but in railways Pakistan has hardly improved. This badly affected our logistics performance index. We are ranked 89 in LPI among 139 countries while India is 38th and both US and China are among top 20 countries. Pakistan’s LPI score is 2.8 which is considerably lower than India’s 3.4 , China’s 3.7 and USA’s 3.8.
A strong logistics infrastructure is the backbone of a modern economy. The modern way of life, like the citizens of a first world country experiences is inconceivable without sophisticated and intelligent transportation systems. This compelling understanding persuaded the visionary leader Xi Jinping to visualise the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, which are arguably the most extensive in human history. It is unfortunate that Pakistan could not achieve much from this enormous strategic initiative of a friendly leader.
Pakistan’s strategic location is conducive for Central Asian countries, Russia and China to get access to warm waters, Middle East , Africa and Europe. Pakistan’s friendly relations with Iran and Turkey and Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul (ITI) train projects lends further credence to her geopolitical significance.
There is a huge potential in Gwadar-Xinjiang Rail link. The project cost is around 58 billion USD but it will give China much needed capability to bypass strait of Malaca and ensure continuous supply chain during conflict situations. Pakistan must push China to complete this project as her own. This is possible in the context of new balance of power and emerging geo strategic compulsions. This link has to be built on standard gauge . It is time for Pakistan to dispense with her obsession with broad guage. Pakistan’s connectivity with Iran and Turkey is very poor. The rail infrastructure doesn’t not support large scale flow of goods. This 635 km rail link is to be upgraded on standard gauge too. This will give Pakistan flexibility to use Turkish route to reach Moscow and vice versa. Iran and Turkey are major powers with a potential to grow even biggerr. Pakistan’s dividends are huge if we Intelligently articulate our interests .
Afghanistan is dependant on Pakistan for many things but this is our gateway to Central Asia too. The Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (UAP) is essential for opening this gateway. The proposed connection between Tarmez and Mazar e Sharif and then to possibly Peshawar or Kohat is a step in the right direction. The adoption of standard guage should be part of Pakistan’s policy for any new link.
There are three possible rail-corridors that can transform the landscape of the entire region with Pakistan becoming the hub of economic and trade activities. The ITI route from Istanbul can be merged with International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) via Georgia or Azerbaijan to Moscow. This corridor is approximately 9000-10000 km long and may require 12-15 days. Rail connectivity over these distances has significant advantages in terms of costs and environmental impacts.
Kashgar, China is connected to Almaty in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. If Pakistan adopt this corridor to reach Moscow, it covers a distance of 8000-9000 km and will take 11-14 days. The third corridor via Afghanistan-Central Asia is 7000-8000 km long and will take 10-12 days. It is the shortest corridor. However, considering the new strategic play in the region, it is important for Pakistan to connect with all these corridors through high quality logistics infrastructure and services. This will open new horizons of development for all the countries but more specifically for Pakistan.
The strategic decision to shift to standard guage is extremely important. There are trade offs but if Pakistan has the ambition of becoming a great country then tough decisions are to be taken. Standard guage will ensure seamless interoperability in all these trade corridors. This will reduce the cost of procurement by almost 30%. The cost of maintenance of standard guage infrastructure will be 15% lower than broad guage. Standard guage support higher speed and heavier axle loads thus bringing over all system benefits. Standard guage is more adaptable to high speed and sophisticated technologies like maglev. It will reduce the cost of future upgrades. Pakistan must think in terms of future proofing too.
There’s is significant challenge to this paradigm shift. The cost of conversion of 7,700 km long infrastructure is around 25 billion USD. The cost of procurement of rolling stock may be between 3-5 billion USD. This is huge for an ailing economy of Pakistan. Pakistan must seek a reasonable framework of financing these developments through multilateral institutions like BRICS and bilateral agreements with friendly countries like China, Turkey and Russia.
A hybrid approach can solve our conundrum. Pakistan must seek all new links on standard guage. The regional corridors to be developed along the alignment of ML 2 and ML 3 instead of taking a long and tedious loop of ML-1. Pakistan may gradually abandon the broad guage altogether. Though it will affect our interoperability with India, yet the future strategic alignment clearly dictate Pakistan to seek solutions excluding India. The India ruled and government by Hindutva is a national security threat to Pakistan. It should never influence our choices for developing infrastructure for regional connectivity.
It is high time for Pakistan to put her own house in order, develop a system of governance conducive for development and undertake the initiative to make these transit corridors a reality in our lifetime.
