The LUMS Energy Institute released its second edition of Pakistan
Electricity Outlook 2022 – a report with a detailed analysis of the electric power system of
Pakistan. It carries a critical review of the National Transmission & Despatch Company’s (NTDC)
Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) for 2021.
During the ceremony, Dr. Fiaz Chaudhry, Director, of LUMS Energy Institute, shared that
following the launch of the first edition of the Pakistan Electricity Outlook released in January
2020, spurred unprecedented decisions in the power sector by the government.
“LUMS Energy Institute was established as a think-tank and centre of excellence for improved
policy outcomes across the energy landscape of Pakistan. We are proud to operate as a
knowledge hub of Pakistan in the most objective manner and will continue to do so to
exemplify talent, independence, and professionalism,” said Dr. Chaudhry.
The Report involves modelling and analysis of the NTDC system through LUMS in-house Power
Dispatch Model (LPDM) from 2022 up to 2029-30. The results cover several points like capacity
and energy balance, dispatch analyses by fuel type, capacity payments, energy payments,
power purchase price, and projected quantities of fuels. It also analyses nine alternative
scenarios to demonstrate the impact on IGCEP outlook, when key variables are changed.
The Pakistan Electricity Outlook 2022 reveals that a period of the expensive capacity surplus will
sustain over the modelled period, ranging from over 15% in summers to over 40% in winters
over peak demand, despite an optimistic growth in projected demand. This means that the
amount of capacity the government has already installed (including that which is under
construction/development)—the power system—will remain in surplus capacity, much more
than needed. As a result, consumers will be bound to pay for this excess capacity regardless of
use, which is currently 900 billion and will rise to 1600 billion by 2030.
Representatives of public and private Energy companies took part in the event and lauded the
efforts of the Institute. The Report has presented to US Ambassador Donald Blome who visited
the LUMS Energy Institute to discuss potential collaboration in Green Energy solutions.
