Pakistan’s power sector achieved a major milestone in January 2026, recording the highest-ever electricity generation for the month despite adverse weather conditions and multiple plant outages. The Power Division reported that the national grid delivered strong operational performance, demonstrating resilience under pressure.
According to official figures, the system reached a historic peak generation of 16,584 megawatts (MW) during January. The average generation throughout the month stood at 12,239 MW, reflecting sustained output levels even during periods of operational stress.
Total electricity generation for January amounted to 9,106 gigawatt-hours (GWh), significantly exceeding the reference projection of 7,962 GWh by around 14 percent. Compared to January 2025, overall output registered an increase of approximately 13 percent, highlighting year-on-year growth in power supply.
Major Outages and Operational Constraints
The record-breaking performance came despite substantial generation challenges. Several major power plants experienced forced outages during the month, reducing available baseload capacity.
Among the most significant disruptions was a 1,040 MW forced outage at K-3 and a 1,180 MW forced outage at the Haveli Bahadur Shah (HBS) power plant. In addition, the Sahiwal Coal Power Plant faced partial and forced outages, while a 300 MW refueling outage occurred at C-III.
Hydropower generation was also constrained due to canal closures that reduced water availability. Lean hydrological conditions limited the output from hydel plants at a time when demand remained stable. Adding to the challenges, dense fog across northern and southern regions during the winter cold wave led to transmission line trippings, temporarily affecting power flow stability.
Despite these constraints, the system avoided major disruptions and continued to meet demand without widespread load management.
Merit-Order Dispatch and Grid Stability
The Power Division emphasized that the national grid was operated strictly under merit-order dispatch principles throughout the month. This approach ensures that electricity is generated from the lowest-cost available sources first, helping to optimize efficiency and control overall system costs.
Thermal power resources were utilized strategically to compensate for reduced baseload availability. Hydropower generation was carefully managed within existing water limitations, balancing conservation needs with demand requirements.
Transmission corridors were continuously monitored to maintain grid stability, particularly during periods of heavy fog and fluctuating generation levels. According to officials, proactive operational planning and close coordination among system operators helped prevent cascading failures or large-scale outages.
These measures ensured uninterrupted supply to most parts of the country, even during peak demand hours and challenging weather conditions.
Commercial and Market Implications
The division noted that commercial implications arising from the rebasing of reference generation figures in January 2026 could be obtained from the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G). The rebasing may affect future tariff calculations or market settlements, depending on regulatory adjustments.
Analysts suggest that exceeding generation projections by a significant margin could influence power purchase costs and pricing mechanisms in upcoming billing cycles.
Current Supply Situation
As of now, system demand is being largely met through hydropower generation, supported by improved water inflows following earlier shortages. Only one RLNG-based plant is currently operational, reflecting reduced reliance on imported fuel amid improved hydrological conditions.
The strong January performance underscores the grid’s ability to manage operational stress while maintaining stability. It also signals improved coordination between generation, transmission, and system management authorities.
With summer demand approaching in the coming months, energy planners will continue to monitor plant availability, water flows, and fuel supplies to ensure sustained reliability across the national power network.
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