Pakistan’s soda ash industry has raised serious concerns over the National Tariff Commission’s (NTC) preliminary findings in an anti-dumping case involving imports from Türkiye and Kenya. Industry representatives and other parties involved in the case have argued that the Commission did not properly consider important evidence and other factors that may have affected local manufacturers.
The dispute is linked to a fresh anti-dumping investigation into soda ash, also known as disodium carbonate. The product is widely used by industries making glass, detergents, soaps, cleaning products, paper, chemicals and other goods. The case has become important for both local producers and businesses that depend on imported soda ash.
The NTC started the investigation in July 2025 after receiving an application from Lucky Core Industries Limited and Olympia Chemical Limited, two Pakistani producers of soda ash. They claimed that soda ash from Türkiye and Kenya was entering Pakistan at dumped prices and causing financial harm to local manufacturers.
However, parties opposing the case have questioned whether imports are really the main reason behind the problems faced by domestic producers. They have also raised concerns about the possible impact of higher prices on industries that use soda ash as a raw material.
NTC Finds Signs of Injury to Local Industry
The NTC’s preliminary determination reached a different conclusion. According to the Commission, dumped imports had increased in both absolute terms and compared with local production during the investigation period.
The Commission also found signs of material injury to the domestic industry. These included lower sales, a decline in market share, weaker production, lower capacity use, and pressure on inventory and productivity. The NTC said price undercutting, price depression and price suppression were also among the factors linked to the imported product.
The investigation covers imports of disodium carbonate under Pakistan Customs Tariff code 2836.2000. The dumping period runs from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025, while the injury period covers April 1, 2022, to March 31, 2025.
Based on its preliminary findings, the NTC imposed provisional anti-dumping duties. The Commission lists a duty range of 3.49% to 5.58% for exporters from Türkiye and 12.54% for imports from Kenya. The investigation is still listed as in progress, meaning the preliminary decision is not necessarily the final outcome.
Industry Questions the Commission’s Approach
The main criticism from parties opposing the duties is that the NTC may have placed too much focus on imported soda ash while not giving enough weight to other problems affecting domestic producers.
One major issue raised in the case is the need to separate the effect of dumped imports from other causes of injury. Under anti-dumping rules, an investigating authority is expected to examine other known factors that could be hurting a local industry. The purpose is to make sure that damage caused by those other factors is not wrongly blamed on imports.
The objections presented to the Commission argue that the biggest pressures on domestic producers during the investigation period may have come from wider economic, structural and business-related issues rather than imported soda ash alone.
The opposing side has therefore questioned whether the evidence establishes a strong enough connection between the imports and the financial problems faced by local producers.
The NTC, however, has said that it examined other possible factors as required under the law. In its response, the Commission stated that it considered factors other than dumped imports and preliminarily found that no other factor had caused material injury to the domestic industry.
Questions Over Existing Import Taxes
Another important issue in the case is Pakistan’s existing tax and duty structure on imported soda ash.
Arguments submitted against additional anti-dumping measures point out that imported soda ash already faces several charges. According to the evidence discussed in the NTC report, imports are subject to customs duty, regulatory duty, sales tax and withholding income tax. The combined incidence was presented as around 45%.
Those opposing additional duties argue that such a structure already provides substantial protection to domestic producers. They say adding anti-dumping duties could make imported soda ash even more expensive for Pakistani businesses.
This concern is especially important because soda ash is not only a finished product. It is also a key input for many other industries.
If its price rises, companies that use soda ash could face higher production costs. These businesses may then have to increase their own prices or accept lower profits. In some cases, higher raw material costs could also make Pakistani products less competitive in local and international markets.
Downstream Industries Could Face Higher Costs
The impact of the soda ash dispute goes beyond the companies directly involved in the investigation.
Soda ash is used in the production of many everyday and industrial products. It is an important material for glass manufacturing, detergents, soaps, cleaning compounds and sodium-based chemicals. It is also used in paper, metallurgical activities, desalination and other industrial processes.
This means a rise in soda ash prices can affect several parts of the manufacturing chain.
For example, glass manufacturers need soda ash as part of their production process. Detergent and chemical companies also depend on it. If their raw material becomes more expensive, their final production costs can increase.
Industry representatives opposing the duties have warned that protecting local soda ash producers through higher import costs could eventually put pressure on downstream businesses. They argue that policymakers should consider the interests of the entire industrial chain rather than focusing only on domestic soda ash producers.
The concern is that a measure designed to support one part of the industry could create problems for several other sectors.
Dispute Over Import Volumes
Another major point of disagreement is the actual size of the imports under investigation.
The parties challenging the NTC’s findings have argued that the volume of the alleged imports was small compared with the size of Pakistan’s domestic soda ash industry. They also questioned whether there was a meaningful increase in imports during the period under review.
The NTC reached a different preliminary view. According to its determination, dumped imports increased during the investigation period both in absolute terms and when compared with domestic production.
This difference in interpretation is important because import volume is one of the factors considered when deciding whether dumped goods may be causing injury to a local industry.
The disagreement shows why the final outcome of the investigation could be closely watched by both local producers and import-dependent businesses.
NTC Says It Followed the Law
While industry groups and other interested parties have questioned parts of the preliminary decision, the NTC has defended its process.
The Commission says it started the investigation after receiving an application from Lucky Core Industries and Olympia Chemicals in June 2025. Following an initial review of the application and supporting evidence, it concluded that there was enough information to justify opening a formal investigation.
The NTC then sought information from interested parties, including foreign producers and exporters.
For Türkiye, the Commission received information from several producers and exporters. For Kenya, the relevant exporters and producers did not provide the required information, so the Commission determined the dumping margin using the best available information allowed under the law.
The Commission has also stressed that anti-dumping duties do not mean imports are banned. Its position is that such duties are meant to ensure that imported goods enter Pakistan at fair prices rather than at prices that are considered unfairly low.
Why the Case Matters for Pakistan
The soda ash case comes at a time when Pakistani industries are already dealing with high production costs, energy prices, taxes and pressure on their profit margins.
For domestic soda ash producers, protection from allegedly dumped imports could provide some relief. Local manufacturers argue that they need a fair market in which they can compete with foreign suppliers without facing artificially low import prices.
For users of soda ash, however, the situation looks different. They need affordable and reliable supplies of the raw material to keep their own factories running.
This creates a difficult policy choice.
If imported soda ash is genuinely being sold at unfairly low prices and causing serious harm to local producers, anti-dumping action can help protect domestic manufacturing. But if higher duties mainly increase the cost of an important industrial input, downstream companies could suffer.
The challenge for policymakers is therefore to find a balance between protecting local production and keeping raw materials affordable for other businesses.
A Case With a Long History
Soda ash has been involved in anti-dumping cases in Pakistan before.
The NTC has previously investigated allegations involving soda ash imports from Kenya and Türkiye. The Commission’s records show that an earlier case concerning imports from Türkiye was eventually terminated.
The current investigation is separate and involves both Türkiye and Kenya. It was initiated on July 18, 2025, and its preliminary determination was issued on January 15, 2026.
The history of these cases shows that the issue is not new. Competition between domestic producers and foreign suppliers has remained a concern for Pakistan’s soda ash market for years.
What Happens Next?
The current decision is only preliminary. The NTC’s official records still list the soda ash investigation as in progress, with no final determination or final duty rate shown yet.
This means the arguments raised by different parties remain important.
The Commission will have to consider the available evidence before reaching its final decision. This includes questions about import volumes, prices, dumping margins, domestic production, sales, market share and the overall condition of the local industry.
It will also be important for the Commission to continue examining other factors that could have affected domestic producers during the investigation period.
For businesses using soda ash, the final decision will be closely watched because any long-term increase in import costs could affect their production expenses.
Balance Between Local Industry and Consumers
The dispute highlights a larger issue in Pakistan’s trade policy: how to protect local industries without creating unnecessary pressure on other businesses and consumers.
Domestic producers need a fair chance to compete. At the same time, manufacturers that depend on imported raw materials need access to reasonably priced supplies.
A decision based on strong evidence can help achieve this balance. But if any important factor is overlooked, the policy could create new problems while trying to solve an existing one.
The industry’s accusation that the NTC ignored or failed to properly consider evidence therefore remains a significant part of the debate. The Commission has rejected the suggestion that it ignored other factors and says it followed the requirements of the anti-dumping law.
The final decision will determine whether the preliminary findings are maintained, changed or withdrawn.
For now, the soda ash dispute remains an important issue for Pakistan’s chemical, glass, detergent and other manufacturing sectors. The outcome will not only affect Lucky Core Industries and Olympia Chemicals or foreign suppliers from Türkiye and Kenya. It could also influence the costs faced by a much wider group of Pakistani businesses that rely on soda ash.
As the investigation moves toward its final stage, both sides will be looking for a decision that is based on complete evidence and considers the interests of the wider economy. The key question is whether the problems faced by domestic soda ash producers are mainly the result of dumped imports or whether other economic and business factors played a larger role.
That answer will be central to the NTC’s final decision and could shape Pakistan’s soda ash market for years to come.
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